Posted: October 10th, 2024

Understanding Public Opinion Polls and Surveys.

Understanding Public Opinion Polls and Surveys.

Public opinion polls and surveys are essential tools for gauging societal attitudes and behaviors. This paper explores key aspects of polling, including common concerns about poll accuracy, the concept of margin of error, and insights from recent Gallup polls on employment, finance, and national policy.

Addressing Common Concerns in Polling
A frequent concern about polls is the perception that pollsters never contact certain individuals. According to Langer (2008), this issue arises from the random sampling method used in polling. Random sampling ensures that every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected, which means not everyone will be contacted. This method is crucial for obtaining a representative sample that reflects the broader population’s views.

Another common concern is the belief that “nobody I know says that,” which often stems from the limited scope of personal networks. Langer (2008) explains that personal experiences do not necessarily reflect broader societal trends. Polls aim to capture a wide range of opinions beyond individual social circles, providing a more comprehensive picture of public sentiment.

Understanding Margin of Error
The margin of error is a critical concept in statistics, particularly in public opinion polling. Rumsey (n.d.) clarifies that the margin of error quantifies the uncertainty inherent in sampling a portion of the population rather than surveying the entire group. It indicates the range within which the true population parameter is likely to fall.

In public opinion polls, the margin of error is typically calculated at a 95% confidence level. This means that if the same poll were conducted 100 times, the results would fall within the margin of error 95 times. This level of confidence provides a reliable estimate of public opinion, acknowledging the inherent variability in sampling.

Insights from Recent Gallup Polls
Employment
The Gallup poll conducted by Newport and Dugan (2017) focused on Americans’ perceptions of manufacturing as a key to job creation. This topic was chosen due to its relevance in economic discussions and policy-making. The most interesting finding was that a significant majority of Americans still view manufacturing as crucial for job creation, highlighting the sector’s perceived importance despite technological advancements. The poll had a sample size of 1,500 respondents, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, calculated at the 95% confidence level. This margin indicates a high level of confidence in the results, reflecting the general sentiment towards manufacturing’s role in employment.

Finance
Jones (2017a) explored concerns about hunger and homelessness among lower-income Americans. This topic was selected due to its social significance and impact on policy. The poll revealed an increase in worry about these issues, which is particularly interesting as it underscores growing economic disparities. The sample size was 1,200, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This margin suggests that the findings are a reliable reflection of the concerns among lower-income groups.

National Policy
McCarthy (2017b) examined American attitudes towards immigration. This topic was chosen for its ongoing relevance in national debates. The poll found that more Americans view immigration positively, which is intriguing given the polarized political climate. The sample size was 1,600, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This margin indicates a strong confidence in the accuracy of the results, reflecting a shift in public opinion towards immigration.

Conclusion
Public opinion polls provide valuable insights into societal attitudes and trends. Understanding the methodology, including random sampling and margin of error, is crucial for interpreting these polls accurately. Recent Gallup polls on employment, finance, and national policy reveal significant trends that inform public discourse and policy-making.

References
Langer, G. (2008). ABC News’ Guide to Polls & Public Opinion.
Rumsey, D. (n.d.). How to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics.
Newport, F., & Dugan, A. (2017). Americans Still See Manufacturing as Key to Job Creation.
Jones, J. M. (2017a). Worry About Hunger, Homelessness Up for Lower-Income in US.
McCarthy, J. (2017b). Americans More Positive about Effects of Immigration.

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a. To answer some of the questions you might have about public opinion polls and surveys:
1. First, read Langers’ (2008) article, “ABC News’ Guide to Polls & Public OpinionLinks to an external site..”
2. Second, make sure you understand the article’s answer to the concern that “[the pollsters] never call me.”
3. Third, make sure you understand the article’s answer to the concern that “nobody I know says that.”
b. To better understand what “margin of error” means in statistics:
1. First, read Rumsey’s (no date) article, “How to Interpret the Margin of Error in StatisticsLinks to an external site..”
2. Second, make sure you understand the difference between sampling a population and surveying (or polling) an entire population.
3. Third, make sure you understand what a margin of error means in a public opinion poll or survey.
c. Choose three of the following five topics for which Gallup has recently conducted a public opinion poll. Then, within each of the two topics you’ve chosen, read one of the listed reports.
1. Employment
 Harter and Adkins (2015): “Engaged Employees Less Likely to Have Health ProblemsLinks to an external site.”
 Newport (2017a) “Email Outside of Working Hours Not a Burden to US WorkersLinks to an external site.”
 Newport and Dugan (2017): “Americans Still See Manufacturing as Key to Job CreationLinks to an external site.”
 Newport (2018a): “Average American Predicts Retirement Age of 66Links to an external site.”
 Swift (2017a): “Most U.S. Employed Adults Plan to Work Past Retirement AgeLinks to an external site.”
2. Finance
 Newport (2017b): “Young, Old in US Plan on Relying More on Social SecurityLinks to an external site.”
 Jones (2017a): “Worry About Hunger, Homelessness Up for Lower-Income in USLinks to an external site.”
 Norman (2017): “Financially Stressed in US Now Prefer Saving to SpendingLinks to an external site.”
 Jones (2017b): “Half of Non-Homeowners Expect to Buy Homes in Five YearsLinks to an external site.”
 Newport (2018b): “Americans’ Views of Their Spending and SavingLinks to an external site.”
3. Well-Being
 Rigoni and Nelson (2016): “Millennials Want Jobs That Promote Their Well-BeingLinks to an external site.”
 Witters (2017a): “Hawaii Leads US States in Well-Being for Record Sixth TimeLinks to an external site.”
 Witters (2017b): “Naples, Florida, Remains Top US Metro for Well-BeingLinks to an external site.”
4. National Policy
 McCarthy (2017a): “US Support for Gay Marriage Edges to New HighLinks to an external site.”
 McCarthy (2017b): “Americans More Positive about Effects of ImmigrationLinks to an external site.”
 Swift (2017b): “More Americans Say Immigrants Help Rather Than Hurt EconomyLinks to an external site.”
 Reinhart and Ray (2018): “Record Unhappiness with Women’s Position in U.S.Links to an external site.”
5. Higher Education
 Auter (2018): “Half of College Students Say Their Major Leads to a Good JobLinks to an external site.”
 Maturo (2017): “One in Three Veterans Consult Coworkers About College MajorLinks to an external site.”
 Auter (2017): “Second Thoughts on College Major Linked to Source of AdviceLinks to an external site.”
d. Make a new post of at least 300 total words in which you provide the following information for each of the three reports you chose to read (three topics x one report per topic). It will be easiest if you write a separate paragraph for each of the three reports.
1. What was the topic of the public opinion poll?
2. Why did you choose this topic (and read this report)?
3. What finding from this public opinion poll do you think is the most interesting – and why do you think this finding is interesting?
4. What was the total sample size?
5. What was the poll’s margin of error?
6. Was the margin of error calculated at the 95% confidence level?
7. What does it mean that the margin of error was calculated at the 95% confidence level?

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Tags: Employment Trends, Immigration Attitudes, Margin of Error, Public Opinion